UNCTAD warns that technology investment is deepening global development divides
UNCTAD expects global economic growth to slow to 2.6% in 2026 and warns that developing economies face growing obstacles to capturing value from emerging technologies. Its latest report calls for coordinated industrial, financial and technology policies to strengthen domestic industries and expand participation in global value chains.
The economic benefits of technological progress remain unevenly distributed, according to the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Its Trade and Development Report 2026: The Geoeconomics of Development warns that access to technology, finance and strategic investment is increasingly shaping which countries can compete in global markets.
The report projects global economic growth to fall from 2.9% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026. Growth in developing economies is expected to decline from 4.7% to 4%. UNCTAD links this outlook to geopolitical tensions, technological barriers and uneven investment, which can limit the ability of developing countries to move into higher-value economic activities.
Artificial intelligence illustrates the imbalance. In a case study tracing the value generated by an advanced AI server rack, post-tax profits accounted for 68% of the value added, while workers received less than 15%. The figures highlight how the economic returns from technology can be concentrated among businesses and investors rather than distributed more broadly across the workforce.
Investment patterns reinforce this divide. Between 2020 and 2025, developed economies attracted around 70% of announced greenfield investment in strategic sectors, including semiconductors, energy-transition technologies and AI infrastructure. Greenfield investment involves establishing new operations rather than simply acquiring existing businesses. For countries seeking to develop their own technology industries, the concentration of such investment can limit opportunities to build local expertise and production capacity.
UNCTAD argues that attracting foreign investment alone is not enough. Governments need policies that help domestic businesses participate in supply chains, develop technological capabilities and retain a greater share of the value generated. Its recommendations include coordinating industrial, financial and technology policies, linking foreign investment to local suppliers and increasing domestic value added.
Regional trade agreements could also help developing economies expand markets, diversify production and strengthen their position in global value chains. Such cooperation may create opportunities for businesses to grow beyond their domestic markets and reduce dependence on a narrow range of economic activities.
The report builds on concerns raised in UNCTAD’s earlier research. Its World Investment Report 2025 found that more than 80% of greenfield investment in digital sectors across developing economies was concentrated in just 10 countries. The organisation’s Technology and Innovation Report 2025 also identified gaps in AI infrastructure, data, skills and participation in global AI governance.
Taken together, these findings frame digital development as an economic and policy challenge, not simply a question of access to new technology. For developing economies, the task is to build the infrastructure, skills and domestic industries needed to capture more of the value generated by technological change, while having a greater role in shaping the rules that govern it.
