AI and inequality: UNDP warns of a potential Next Great Divergence
A new UNDP report examines how artificial intelligence may widen development gaps between and within countries. It argues that the Asia-Pacific region is the world’s testing ground for whether AI becomes a driver of inclusion or a catalyst for deeper inequality, and outlines the policy choices that will determine which path prevails.
The United Nations Development Programme has released The Next Great Divergence, an extensive study assessing whether artificial intelligence may reinforce or reduce inequalities in the Asia-Pacific region. The report positions AI as a general-purpose technology comparable to electricity or the internet, capable of transforming economies and public services. Yet, because such technologies rarely diffuse evenly, the report cautions that AI could accelerate unequal development unless governments intervene early and systematically.
The analysis situates the current moment within a long historical pattern. Past technological revolutions first widened global gaps before eventually enabling convergence for countries able to invest, adapt institutions, and diffuse the benefits. UNDP argues that AI has reached a similar turning point, with high-capacity states already moving ahead, while lower-income and small island countries face structural barriers such as unreliable power, limited connectivity, and scarce technical skills. These foundational divides shape who will benefit from AI in education, healthcare, disaster response, and public-service delivery, and who will be left out. undp-rbap-the-next-great-diverg…
The report emphasises three domains where inequality risks may accumulate: people, the economy, and governance. In social sectors, AI can support personalised learning, faster diagnostics, or early-warning systems, but only where data, local adaptation, and safeguards exist. In the labour market, AI may generate productivity gains and new roles, while simultaneously threatening routine and geographically concentrated employment. In public administration, AI promises more responsive services but also introduces risks of opacity, bias, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and over-reliance on foreign technology. These effects will not be evenly distributed and could deepen rural–urban, gender, and income divides.
To avoid such outcomes, UNDP calls for coordinated action grounded in three principles: putting people first, governing innovation responsibly, and building future-ready systems. The report outlines differentiated roadmaps for countries at varying capacity levels, combining infrastructural measures (connectivity, compute, reliable power) with institutional and skills-based investments. It stresses inclusion metrics, transparency requirements, appeal mechanisms for AI-influenced decisions, and sector-specific guardrails to ensure that AI deployment narrows rather than widens gaps.
The report’s overarching message is straightforward. AI’s benefits are real but uneven. Without deliberate policies, the region may enter a period of unequal abundance, where aggregate progress conceals widening disparities. With the right governance choices, however, AI could instead strengthen human development and expand capabilities across societies.
